Context
A new report from London Councils has found that London’s schools are continuing to face significant decreases in demand for places, caused by the drop in the birth rate and other local factors such as increased housing costs.
Most London boroughs are expected to see a decline in reception pupil numbers from 2023-24 to 2027-28, including 7 boroughs in London that are forecasting a decrease in demand over 10%. At secondary school level, forecast demand is also falling.
The drop in the child population is creating real challenges for schools which are already considerably cash-strapped and face further budgetary reductions due to fewer pupils on their school roll. London Councils’ analysis shows that in 2022-23 approximately a quarter of all local authority maintained schools in London are in deficit. This is relatively consistent across Inner and Outer London.
In discussion with boroughs, it is clear that falling rolls are playing a key part in driving schools into deficit. There is widespread concern that many of the 40% maintained primary schools currently with less than 8% surplus budgets will shortly fall into deficit without intervention.
Policy Challenges
School closures and whole system approach
Local authorities have a statutory responsibility to manage school places locally to both ensure that there are sufficient school places for every child in the local area that needs one and to support schools with falling rolls when there are drops in demand, to ensure that schools can remain financially viable and educationally excellent, offering choice to families in the local area. In some instances, local authorities will have to take forward plans to close schools that have become financially unviable where there are no forecast increases in the local child population, and keeping these schools open will have a detrimental impact on the wider sustainability of other local schools.
Boroughs make decisions about where to close schools based on a range of key factors, including the popularity of schools, Ofsted ratings, travel routes, demand forecasts and budget deficits. They want to ensure that local areas have choice in the system and don’t disadvantage particular groups of children as a result of school closures. However, these strategic decisions need to be made in agreement with partners and local authorities should be able to consider all local state schools, including academies, as part of a fair and transparent process.
Currently academies do not have to be part of a local authorities’ school places strategy and local authorities have no statutory duties over academies in terms of places planning. Therefore, a local authority can’t direct an academy to reduce PAN even when other local good schools are struggling and might need to close if all local schools don’t work together. In some cases, academies work well with local authorities, recognising the local challenges and voluntarily reduce their PANs, but without levers this happens on an ad hoc basis and does not allow for any choice in the system.
Local authorities are also constrained in how they work with neighbouring local authorities due to data restrictions. It would be helpful if neighbouring local authorities could have access to pupil census data to be able to better plan provision across borough boundaries. The DfE could help support a more strategic cross-borough approach by considering the implications on the wider sub-region in its decision-making, particularly around new free schools.
Managing the drop in demand for places is an enormous challenge facing the majority of London boroughs. Demand analysis for the next four years shows that this is unlikely to change and in many areas it will worsen, leading to more reductions in pupil numbers in schools and potential school closures. We want to support local authorities to better manage the system but we need central government to help with this, bringing all schools together to ensure the local ecosystem of schools works collectively to support children’s long term outcomes.
Protecting the school estate
With school closures on the increase, London Councils is concerned about the loss of educational assets for future generations. London’s birth rate has historically ebbed and flowed, and London is likely to become a more popular place to raise a family at some point in the future, leading to renewed demand for school places. To avoid the DfE from having to purchase land and build new schools in the future it is vital that we are able to keep current educational assets in use for educational purposes, such as nurseries, family hubs, special schools, which creates more flexibility going forward. Many local authorities are looking at these options but would welcome more support from the DfE to ensure empty schools can be protected for educational purposes.
School Funding Model
We welcome the DfE’s Falling Rolls Fund, which is helpful for schools experiencing a short term drop in demand. However, many schools in London will not be able to access this as they can’t demonstrate an increase in demand in the next four years. It would be helpful, given the scale of the challenge, number of schools currently facing falling rolls and the further forecast drops in demand, if the DfE could make this pot of funding more flexible in recognition of the need to protect vital education assets across London.
SEND
London has been grappling with a steady increase in the number of children identified with SEND in recent years. In the last year alone, the number of children with an Education, Health and Care Plan (EHCPs) in London has increased by 9% from January 2022 to January 2023. Some local authorities are reporting that the increased budgetary pressure facing schools is leading to a decrease in additional support available and this is leading to some schools to be less inclusive than previously. It is vital that the DfE works with local authorities and schools to promote more inclusion in schools, and that schools receive consistent and appropriate levels of funding to enable more children with SEND to access mainstream school places.
Recommendations and our ask of London MPs
Given the current and forecast drops in demand for both reception and year 7 places, it is essential that local authorities, schools, Multi Academy Trusts, the Dioceses and the DfE work together to ensure that children in London are not being adversely affected by falling rolls.
London Councils is calling on the DfE to:
- Ensure that academies are part of local school place planning arrangements and school organisation plans, and that they are considered for PAN reductions or school closure, as part of a transparent and fair process that provides choice to families and excellent local schools.
- Provide a long-term guarantee to keep the statutory override in the Direct Schools Grant in place.
- Review the funding model for schools with falling rolls to help protect London’s schools for the future. In particular, make the Falling Rolls Fund more flexible in recognition of the need to protect vital education assets across London.
- Review arrangements to protect closed school buildings for educational purposes, working with local authorities and other education partners.
- Work with local authorities and schools to promote more inclusion in schools and ensure that schools receive consistent and appropriate levels of funding to enable more children with SEND to access mainstream school places.
- Enable neighbouring local authorities to have access to key data, including pupil census, where appropriate.
- Take into account cross-borough planning when making strategic decisions about new schools.
