Overview
London Councils has released a report on school places in London which has found that London local authorities and schools are currently dealing with a significant and sustained period of reduction in demand for reception and Year 7 places, which has implications for school budgets and standards. The fall in demand reflects the decline in the birth rate since 2012 and changes in migration patterns in London.
This briefing summarises the impact of these findings on schools and London boroughs. The briefing also covers possible solutions to these challenges, and the cross-party asks of the government from London’s boroughs.
Reception
London Councils has analysed data from 32 London boroughs which reveals that 29 London boroughs are expecting a drop in demand of over 4% for reception places between 202223 and 2026-27. On average, London boroughs are predicted to see a 7.3% decrease in reception pupil numbers from 2022-23 to 2026-27 and London’s total reception numbers are predicted to decline from 96,424 to 89,121 over this period (reflecting a 7.6% total decrease).
Year 7
Forecast demand for year 7 places in secondary schools across London is predicted to drop by a total of 3.5% between 2022-23 to 2026-27, representing a slower rate of decline than at the primary level. This amounts to a decrease from 92,722 to 89,510 children. 7 London Boroughs are forecasting growth over this period.
What is the cause?
The birth rate is the main driver behind the decrease in demand for school places. Between 2012-2021 there has been a 17% decrease in the birth rate in London, a reduction of 23,225 live births across the capital.
However, there are other key factors at play which are also having an impact on demand for reception places in London. The boroughs have reported to us that they have experienced shifts in their local child population since the right of entry and freedom of movement has been withdrawn from EU nationals and as a result of families leaving London during the Covid-19 pandemic. The lack of affordable housing in London has also led some young families to move away from the Capital.
Some areas are planning new housing developments or are experiencing high numbers of families arriving from overseas, particularly from Hong Kong, Afghanistan and Ukraine, and are therefore forecasting pockets of growth. However, this growth can be transient and hard to forecast in the long term.
What is the impact?
School Funding
The majority of school revenue funding is allocated on a per pupil basis. Therefore, any decrease in pupil numbers will reduce the funding a school receives. Many primary schools in London are already struggling to balance budgets this academic year, due to a combination of factors including inflationary price increases, a shortage of teaching and support staff leading to increased spend on expensive agency staff, and a significant pay award for support staff. The government has committed through the Autumn Statement to increase core revenue funding for schools, which is welcome for the sector, but it is not yet clear whether the funding for London’s schools will be sufficient to cover increased costs.
School Standards and Improvement
The reduction in school finances means that schools will have to make difficult decisions to balance their budgets, for example by reducing the number of teaching and support staff, narrowing the curriculum offer and extracurricular opportunities, that could have an impact on school standards. With increased numbers of children with Special Educational Needs and Disabilities (SEND), complexity of need and mental health, many London schools are under pressure. There is a real concern that this will have an impact on school performance.
School Mergers and Closures
Primary schools with falling rolls that are forecast to remain low are at risk of financial disruption and may find that the only option for the school and their local authority is to merge the school with another school or close it altogether to avoid negatively impacting on children’s outcomes. This process requires a great deal of consideration and consultation to ensure that the children attending the school receive a better quality of education at a new school that is more financially robust.
It is important that school and local authority leaders are supported when needing to consider school closures to make decisions in a timely and effective manner to benefit local children, whilst also being mindful of protecting the school’s estate ahead of a potential population increase in the future.
16-18 Education
Demand for places in 16 to 18 education and skills is expected to continue to increase for the next two to five years. In the medium to longer term though, 16 to 18 education and training providers will need to start thinking about what the impact of the forecast reduction in numbers will have on their budgets and standards, and to get ahead of this curve now to ensure that they can continue to deliver good quality provision.
Children with Special Educational Needs and Disabilities (SEND)
The number of children with SEND continues to increase in London. Many children with an Education Health and Care Plan (EHCP) receive a good education in mainstream schools that are able to meet their needs effectively. However, some mainstream schools are not as inclusive as they could be in admitting children with SEND and providing an appropriate level of provision for them.
We have previously researched examples of high-quality inclusive practice in mainstream schools in London, as well as identified barriers to inclusion, which included a lack of engagement from some academies that were more focused on attainment than supporting all pupils. There is an opportunity now with surplus places in many primary schools across London to identify ways to make them more inclusive to children with SEND. This will require a collective effort from local authorities, schools and the DfE, particularly to ensure that schools are appropriately funded to be able to deliver the support required to meet the needs of children with SEND.
However, many children with SEND need provision that is best delivered through a special school. The London boroughs are increasingly struggling to find good quality, local specialist provision to meet this growing demand and there is an urgent need to build more special schools to increase capacity.
In-Year Mobility
London Councils surveyed boroughs and found that across 23 London boroughs, the number of in-year admissions received last school year had increased by 10,687 in comparison with the 2019-20 school year. This increase in in-year admissions is due to several factors including families choosing to move to different boroughs due to changes in working patterns and lifestyle choices following the Covid-19 pandemic, and people moving into London, including from Afghanistan, Hong Kong and Ukraine.
High numbers of pupils arriving during term time can put significant pressure on individual schools. No immediate funding is made available by the Department for Education (DfE) for in-year admissions as funding is linked to school Census dates undertaken on a termly basis.
The Schools White Paper proposed that local authorities should have responsibility for inyear admissions for all schools, which would make the system easier for parents to navigate and local authorities to manage. Local authorities are supportive of the need for all children, particularly new arrivals from overseas who may have already faced significant disruption, to be offered local, high quality school places but this may require, in some cases, going above a school’s Published Admission Number (PAN). Local authorities would welcome the co-ordinating role for all in-year admissions but will need powers to direct all schools to accept children, where appropriate.
Free Schools
The DfE has shifted away from opening new primary free schools in London, in recognition of the lack of demand for new places and the impact that new schools can have on other local schools if there is no demand.
However, some primary free school developments that were approved some time ago have been delayed and are still in the pipeline to open, despite demand patterns shifting dramatically in local areas. Opening a new school in an area where there are falling rolls can cause significant and unnecessary turbulence to the system. In some parts of London free schools in the pipeline have been withdrawn by sponsors in response to changing need, but it would be helpful if the DfE took a more proactive role in withdrawing applications in areas where needs have changed.
Solutions - what London's schools and local authorities need from the government
- Ensure school funding levels keep up with inflationary increases, which will help schools to be more resilient in the face of changing demand patterns
- Work with local authorities and schools to promote more inclusion in schools, including reviewing funding allocations to ensure that schools receive consistent and appropriate levels of funding to enable more children with SEND to access mainstream school places
- Enable local authorities to open their own special provision, where there is no strong Multi Academy Trust (MAT) willing to sponsor a local special school and there is clear demand for more provision, and make capital funding available to support this
- Give local authorities the power to manage an academies’ reduction of Published Admission Numbers (PAN) or closure, where there is clear evidence locally of a significant drop in demand and a need to act to ensure that a school remains financially viable. Local authorities already have stronger powers in this area in relation to maintained schools, working in consultation with head teachers and governing bodies.
- Give local authorities the responsibility for in-year admissions, as set out in the Schools White Paper, and powers to direct all schools to accept local children on to their roll, where appropriate. Local authorities already have this responsibility in relation to maintained schools.
- Work closely with local authorities where there are still free schools in the pipeline, to ensure that they are still needed and withdraw applications where there is no evidence of need.
