London boroughs are supporting local schools as demand for school places continues to drop across the capital, a new report by London Councils has revealed.
Today’s report shows a predicted decrease of 3.6% in reception pupil numbers in London over the next four years. This translates to 3,195 places which is roughly equivalent to a drop of 117 reception classes. It also predicts a drop of demand of 2.9% for pupils beginning secondary school. The decrease for pupils entering Year 7 translates to 2,646 places, roughly equivalent to 100 year 7 classes.
2023-24 also marks the first time London has seen more children in Year 7 than in reception, increasing the threat of further school closures in coming years.
London’s birth rate is the main reason for the decrease in demand for school places. Between 2012-2022 there has been a 20% decrease of the birth rate in London, which is a reduction of 27,490 live births across the capital. The drop in birth rate is mainly due to the severe shortage of affordable family housing in the capital, leading to more people deciding not to have families in London.
The continued reduction in school places is having an impact on the amount of funding a school receives, resulting in schools having to make difficult decisions about how to balance their budgets. For example, schools may have to reduce staff numbers, which will significantly affect their ability to provide appropriate additional support to children with Special Educational Needs and Disabilities (SEND), hindering their ability to be inclusive.
In some cases, school and local authority leaders have had to make difficult decisions to merge or close schools.
Today’s report highlights the need for stronger powers for local authorities on school places, particularly over the future of closed schools so they can be used to meet local needs. It also recommends allowing local authorities to manage in year admissions for all schools which would reduce lengthy waits for children and streamline the application process for parents.
Cllr Ian Edwards, London Councils Executive Member for Children and Young People, said:
“London has many of the best schools in the country, with 96% of all our schools being rated good or outstanding by Ofsted. London boroughs are determined to ensure there continues to be sufficient high quality school places available in each local area, despite this difficult climate.
“London Councils has welcomed many of the measures proposed in the Children’s Wellbeing and Schools Bill that will create a fairer education system for all, but there is further to go. Boroughs will continue to work closely with key education partners in London to mitigate the impact of this drop in demand for school places on school budgets and children’s achievements.”
ENDS
Notes to editors:
1) London Councils undertook a survey in Autumn 2024 to investigate funding pressures across London’s schools and gain a deeper understanding of the contributing factors. 31 boroughs responded – as the City of London receives a separate grant for schools, it has been excluded from the pan-London analysis.
2) Local authorities do not have access to data on academy budgets, so London Councils is only able to analyse local authority maintained school budgets. However, academies are funded through the same national funding formula and therefore will be subject to the same budgetary pressures.
3) Some boroughs are predicting growth in pupil numbers, but the large majority are forecasting ongoing drops in demand.