The political battleground...

We know what the issues that matter to Londoners are, but as the candidates close in on a 1 May poll, what are the wider issues that might affect the outcome? We asked London Communication Agency’s Robert Gordon Clark to speculate. 

First, we need to consider the national political scene.

This is an unusual election for all three national parties as all three have a relatively new leader at the same time.

David Cameron is actually the “oldest” of these having been in post two years and Nick Clegg the “youngest” at five months! That said, Gordon Brown has been wanting the top job for 10 years, and is undeniably the big beast when it comes to campaigning.

This London election is therefore a real test of all three, as the capital will be a key battleground when Gordon Brown finally calls a General Election in 2009 or 2010.

Second, there is the impact of minor parties.

The top-up vote system deliberately provides smaller parties with a real chance to register political representation.

In 2004 we had the Euro elections, which helped swell the UKIP vote from 35,000 in 2000 to over 150,000 in 2004. This led to two members on the Assembly, but they soon fell out with the party and became One London members.

Will they do as well again? And can One London hold their two seats, now that they are running under a relatively unknown banner?

Meanwhile the Greens will be desperate to do better, given the increasing concern over the environment, and will be aiming for at least a third Assembly member.

The other key party to watch is the BNP,which in 2004 came within a whisker of gaining a seat on the Assembly.

For anyone alarmed by this prospect, a high turnout is very important as this will make it harder for the BNP to hit the 5 per cent share of vote needed to get one seat.

Third, there is the second vote issue.

In 2004 Simon Hughes actually polled over 750,000 votes, only 57,000 less than Ken and around 90,000 more than Steve Norris. The problem was he only got 284,000 first votes, to Norris’s 542,000 and Ken’s 685,000.

While Brian Paddick is a novel choice and can at least present himself as “non” political by background, the ground is simply too much to make up in a city which remains stubbornly two party.

So for Boris the first question is can he win 50.01 per cent of the first votes and negate the need for a second count?

The answer is almost certainly no, as Norris only polled 28 per cent of first round votes in 2004.

The second question then is how does he appeal to enough voters for them to register a second vote for him rather than Ken?

Finally, and most significantly for Ken Livinsgtone, is the anti-incumbency effect.

This could perhaps be a double whammy for Ken, with dissatisfaction with New Labour nationally combining with some wanting change in London, after eight years of his brand of leadership.