London 2023

The public sector needs to accurately predict economic and social changes says Brigitte Gohdes from improvement programme London Collaborative

London is one of the leading centres of world finance, but what would happen to the capita lin the event of a catastrophic collapse of the global money market?

Would there be a London-wide strategy for dealing with the social impact of the subsequent recession?

Given the complexity and overlapping jurisdictions of London’s governance institutions it is difficult to imagine what such a pan-London response might look like.

Unlike the collaborative infrastructure inplace to deal with civil emergencies such as apossible terrorist attack littlecurrently exists to deal with socio-economic traumas that are equally, if not more, likely.

The London Collaborative, a programme initiated by public service improvement agency, Capital Ambition, is creating a network of public sector leaders to clarify the big issues that cut across their organisations and will shape the future of our global city.

It aims to make the most of London’s collective intelligence to help its public agencies deal with complex and cross boundary challenges, such as worklessness, competitiveness, climate change and community conflict.

The first phase of network-building is well underway with nearly 200 key managers nominated from across the boroughs.

A second phase, recruiting people from key agencies such as the Metropolitan Police, the NHS and housing agencies, has also started.

A range of scenarios speculating what London might look like in 2023 are being developed with sector leaders in workshops covering topics such as population growth, housing and climate change.

The aim is less to forecast the future than to identify challenges and areas where London’s public sector may need to take shared responsibility for shaping the best possible future for Londoners.

The key drivers and trends likely to shape the future of the city are fairly well known: the pressure for more affordable housing; climate change; the impact of lifestyles and behaviours; rates of inequality and the degree of social cohesion.

Each of these will in turn be affected by uncertain but critical factors such as the level of growth of London’s economy and the rate of demographic change.

At a seminar on future scenarios, some of London’s most long-standing researchers noted that past studies often failed to anticipate with accuracy the most significant developments that have shaped the contemporary city.

However, there is a widespread perception that in spite of London’s success, across the private, public and third sectors it could be doing much better; that London could be more effective in using its strong, and in many cases world-class, institutions and existing capacities, and that it has sometimes been less strategic, and less fleet of foot in responding to challenges, than it might have been.

A provisional conclusion to emerge is that adaptive capacity and a focus on resilience are key factors in the capital’s future.

It follows that a focus on adaptability means pan-London tactics are as important as pan-London strategies and visions.

More mundane but currently pressing drivers for cross-borough collaboration are already with us. Shared services are clearly moving up the political agenda. With an employment rate 5 per cent below the rest of the UK, there is also a keen awareness of the need to find more effective collaboration across the agencies responsible for tackling worklessness.

The London Collaborative’s report on future challenges will be published on 18 March.The report will provide a framework for determining the most fruitful areas for collaboration and investigate the most effective ways of measuring London’s future success.

The London Collaborative is being delivered by research organisations The Young Foundation, the Office of Public Management and Common Purpose.

For further information see www.youngfoundation.org/london Opens in a new window.