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London Councils demands urgent review of all population estimates and funding tied to them
Today's admission that the Department of Work and Pensions has undercounted the number of foreign nationals working in Britain by 300,000 stands up London Councils concerns that the government is severely underestimating the number of people in the capital.
London local authorities are strongly contesting the Office of National Statistics recently released population figures which have reduced the population projections for the capital in 2007 by 95,000 people. This totally contradicts boroughs' own population counts which all report population counts thousands higher than the ONS figures.
The government made the error in its use of the Labour Force Survey, the same survey used to inform the ONS population figures for London which distributes government funding for essential front line council services including social care and waste.
Speaking out about the government's admission of failure over these working population figures Chairman of London Councils Merrick Cockell said:
"Today's failure further undermines public confidence in the government's population figures. Given the massive importance of these figures to funding for essential local services London Councils is now extremely concerned about the chaos and unreliability that is surrounding them.
This admission of failure should be used to invigorate a through examination of all population estimates that are used to distribute government grant. Until this is carried out government should not make any downward revisions of the numbers of international migrants living in London."
Notes to editors
- Several London councils have commissioned work that provides good evidence that the current population estimates seriously underestimate the real population of their borough:
- Extensive work to match individuals to addresses in Brent demonstrated that the official estimates were 2,000 short;
- a similar exercise in Enfield suggested a 3,300 shortfall;
- Newham calculated that there were 750 more resident children in their schools than the ONS estimate of school-age children in Newham, even though the borough's figures did not include those children at private schools.
- This underestimate is not unique to London. Research undertaken on behalf of Slough concludes that their population is underestimated by up to 6,000 residents. The new methodology proposed by the ONS does not address these undercounts.
- The population figures used by government do not take into account short-term migrants - i.e. those who stay less than 12 months. A recent report from ONS estimated that London is host to some 40% of all short-term migrants.
- Other substantial groups of people who live in London are not recorded in the population figures used to calculate government grants. These include people who live in London between Monday to Friday, but are recorded as resident elsewhere in the country. There are also significant numbers of illegal migrants who do not appear in any of the population estimates
For press enquiries please contact: Holly Sutton on 020 7934 9842
Holly.Sutton@londoncouncils.gov.uk Fax 020 7934 9769
For non-media enquiries contact: London Councils,
59½ Southwark Street, London SE1 0AL Tel 020 7934 9999 www.londoncouncils.gov.uk
