Migrant miscount could cost London dear

The government has been warned not to put its head in the sand in the face of compelling evidence that it is seriously underestimating the number of migrants living in London.

The Shadow Minister for London, Bob Neill MP, warned during a Commons debate that the miscounting could lead to serious shortfalls in government grants to councils in the capital.  

London Councils has warned that new ways of counting migrants has resulted in London's official population being cut by more than 60,000, which flies in the face of the evidence experienced by many boroughs struggling to provide services for more people.

In response to the issues raised by Mr Neill and several other MPs, Treasury Minister Angela Eagle agreed that population statistics should be as accurate as possible but this would not happen immediately. She added that the government will talk to affected organisations, including councils in London as "the Office for National Statistics attempts to improve its methodology".

Simon Hughes, Liberal Democrat MP for North Southwark and Bermondsey, backed Bob Neill's call to "restore both fairness and confidence" in the government's statistics.  He said London Councils' view "is a shared view across parties and among independent people across London".

Andrew Pelling, Conservative MP for Croydon Central, added: "Figures for migrants are having an impact on the local government finance settlements" significantly impeding on Croydon Council's ability to deliver services.

The ONS used to base its population estimates on a combination of the Census and the International Passenger Survey (IPS), based on interviews of those arriving at ports and airports. But now it has switched to a mix of the IPS and the Labour Force Survey, which looks at the make up of the country's working population.

This new method underestimates the international migrant population of London by over 60,000 people. If the government continues to use this new population counting method then central government grant allocations for London's councils will fall significantly short for the next three years.

One of the flaws in ONS' head-counting method is that it fails to capture people who stay in an area for less than a year. Therefore it misses one of the features of migration in London, where significant numbers of people stay for short period working in the short-term jobs that the city has to offer. 

However, regardless of how long people stay, the capital's councils still need to provide them with services such as housing related benefits, council tax administration, and waste collection.
Responding to the outcome of this debate Chairman of London Councils Councillor Merrick Cockell said:

"The government is still not taking this issue seriously enough. We must get things right before the three year funding settlement kicks in. These inaccurate population counting methods used by the ONS do not reflect the actual patterns of migration in London. The government needs to get them up to scratch quick or London's councils will be locked into an inadequate finance settlement for the next three years. This would put London's already stretched council services in danger of being severely overburdened."