Why is the formula getting it so wrong?

There are a number of reasons why the new PSS formula is getting it so wrong, firstly that it was based on incomplete information from only a handful of councils.

This meant that much of the data about services had to be synthetically created - which should hardly be the basis of a supposedly robust funding formula that is expected to predict the need of 150 different councils.

Secondly, and as the statisticians admit themselves, the formula underestimates need in areas facing the greatest challenges - such as London. Because it 'flattens' need, it actually ends up over-funding lower need areas.

Finally, the formula implies that need doesn't vary too much from area to area, and this does not stand up to scrutiny. The result of the formula's inability to identify the wide range of needs that vulnerable adults face means that it cannot ensure resources are going to the clients who need them most.